The impact of the sharp drop in oil prices on chem

2022-10-16
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The impact of the sharp fall in oil prices on chemical related products is beginning to show

the price of methanol series products

the recent sharp correction in oil prices has been lower than the level expected by the Federation of petroleum and chemical industry to remain at US dollars/barrel. Analysts from CIC Securities pointed out that from the current situation of the global economy, the risk of oil price decline has intensified, and the chemical industry may have an operational logic at the end of 2008. The recent sharp fall in oil prices has had a certain impact on the domestic chemical market

on May 25, the July crude oil futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached US $67.31 per barrel. International oil prices have fallen since hitting a 19 month high on May 3, with a cumulative decline of more than 25%

analysts believe that at present, there are both long and short crude oil factors. The weakness of the euro and the strength of the US dollar make it difficult for oil prices to stabilize in the short term, which intensifies concerns about various problems on the road to global economic recovery, and forms a certain psychological pressure on crude oil futures prices, resulting in a sharp rise in the risk of oil bottoming. However, it is worth noting that as the current peak demand season is approaching, demand will form a certain support for it, so the decline in oil prices will not exceed the extent of the last financial crisis

according to the law of gradual transmission of oil prices from upstream to downstream, the first major basic chemical raw materials affected by the sharp fall in oil prices are ethylene, propylene, methanol, pure benzene, acetone, polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride and so on; The second is derived chemical intermediates, such as aniline, bisphenol A, PTA, BDO, etc; Thirdly, MDI, TDI, technical drugs, various additives, epoxy resins, high-end engineering plastics and other fine chemical raw materials; Finally, there are modified plastics and their molding processing, as well as household chemical products, coatings, inks, synthetic leather and other terminal chemical products that are directly related to the consumption field

industrial securities analysts said that due to the uncertain overseas economic prospects and domestic regulatory policies on real estate, the demand for chemicals was generally flat; In addition, the international crude oil price continued to fall, strengthening the wait-and-see mentality of the downstream, so the overall price of chemical products fell more or rose less last week. Among them, products closely related to oil prices, such as methanol, PVC, propylene, rubber, benzene, aniline and MDI, have fallen to a certain extent

in the secondary market for evaluating the fatigue and wear resistance of materials, methanol is the upstream of the high MEG inventory in the chloroform Chinese market, so the cost pressure of Juhua shares has been reduced; Propylene oxide is the upstream raw material of hongbaoli polyether products, and polyethylene is the upstream raw material of Cangzhou Mingzhu gas pipe; The sharp correction in the price of pure benzene led to the correction in the price of PTA, aniline and other benzene derivatives, thus reducing the cost pressure of polyurethane synthetic leather raw materials of Hexin

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